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Cautionary brand growth insight from expert who studies end-of-humanity scenarios

A brand doesn’t need to calculate the odds that humanity will experience an extinction-level event within the next 100-years. And yet, as I’ve been reading The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity by Tony Orb, a philosopher at Oxford University, I’ve noticed that brands and humanity share a common enemy: inertia.

Neither can just sit around and expect risk-free growth.

Orb’s book turns out to be a useful framework for brand growth, particularly his two-part answer to the question, “How can humanity have the greatest chance of achieving its potential?”

Part one – “Reaching Existential Security” – is about addressing problems that threaten us right now (drought, famine, carbon emissions, nuclear war) and thinking about the technology we’d need to mitigate longer-term dangers such as asteroids and supernovae.

Part two – “The Long Reflection” – is more philosophical. Once we have a firm grip on short- and long-term threats, we dive into meaty questions about what we value.

It might seem obvious that growing a brand is contingent on surviving short-term dangers. But there’s a good argument for brands using Orb’s framework in reverse — to identify values first and deal with immediate threats second.

A while back, I received a newsletter from startup consultant Matt Lerner. In it, Lerner mentions a hypothetical dog walking service that describes itself as “The fast and easy way to find a dog walker.” He recommends replacing “fast” and “easy” with something dog owners find annoying or inconvenient.

For instance: “Find a dog walker without having to try your luck on Nextdoor or Craigslist.”

It’s easy to think about the future like Orb does. There are threats that could put you out of business tomorrow and they need to be dealt with today. Yet Lerner recommends the opposite approach. The sooner you articulate your value, the more shoppers you’ll convert, the easier it will be to survive short-term threats.

Nobody can sit around and expect risk-free growth. But if people can see how you add value to their lives, good things tend to happen.